4 Q's - When Am I Going to Get the Thing?

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Quintessential Thought

Every organization has to (at some degree or another) answer the question, “when will X be done?” Many organizations use detailed formulas to answer this question. That can work well when most things are known and stable, but fall apart as we introduce more variables. In agile and Scrum, we are dealing with a lot of unknowns, increasing our complexity and decreasing our ability to predict.

So do we give up on trying to answer the question? Some will say yes. I don’t think so. The shift is not making the estimate a one-time conversation. Time, scope, quality, value, and cost all play together. If we figure out which one wins, we can optimize the rest around it.

Quotes

“To be uncertain is to be uncomfortable, but to be certain is to be ridiculous.” —Chinese proverb

“Planning is everything. Plans are nothing." —Field Marshal Helmuth Graf von Moltke

“Build less, start sooner.” – Jim Highsmith

“You should never—and I mean never—communicate a forecast that does not include at least two things: a date range and a probability for that date range occurring.” – Daniel Vacanti

Quick Step

Slice your backlog. Try making something as small as possible to learn quicker. Then revisit your forecast with the next thing. You’ll learn from the first thing and give yourself an opportunity to change course if it’s not what you were expecting.

Question

How accurate have your estimates been? What costs have you paid for the way you’re estimating now?

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