4 Qs - Re-Forecasting is Agility

Quintessential Thought

We’re in a series about how to improve forecasting for agility. Take a look at last week’s newsletter about what we need to balance in agile forecasting. Now, we turn to the first of four core practices that will help you put it into practice.

No matter which of the other upcoming practices you use, put them inside this container: re-forecasting.

This is a fundamental shift from traditional, long-term, locked-in forecasting that is built for more predictable environments. Within a locked-in forecast, your available agility is nearly non-existent. In agility, forecasts are revisited repeatedly with empirical data and new learnings. 

There are two keys to doing re-forecasting well.

1) Help others make the shift. 

Some people may be used to and comfortable with traditional forecasting…and, therefore, skeptical and uncomfortable with re-forecasting. Often, this is embedded into the culture of your team, department, or organization. Employ effective change approaches to shift, including:

• Make requests of those who can influence the culture

• Find and express the cost of staying the same

• Envision and communicate the future state

• Invite specific action

2) Make re-forecasting a habit. 

Instead of an afterthought or being completely forgotten, you’ll want to make re-forecasting habitual - a regular part of your routine.

To do this, consider how you can make it easier to build the habit. Use the practices in the book Atomic Habits. What is hard about it that could be made simpler? How can you maximize the part of it you (or others) enjoy the most? How can you (or others) start repeating the first, small step toward regular re-forecasting?

The easier you make it to re-forecast, the more likely you’re going to keep doing it.

Walk out your agility by regularly reviewing and adapting your forecasts. Collaboratively reflect on your past performance at least monthly, adjusting forecasts and their underlying assumptions based on insights gained. Prioritize adjustments that are most likely to improve the success of your plans.

Quotes

“If you have to forecast, forecast often.” — Edgar Fiedler

“The difference between an amateur and a professional is in their habits. An amateur has amateur habits. A professional has professional habits. We can never free ourselves from habit. But we can replace bad habits with good ones.” — Steven Pressfield

“A teacher told my mother that I would never become successful, which illustrates the difficulty of long-run forecasting on inadequate data.” — Clive Granger

Quick Step

How much agility do you have in your forecasting today?

Question

Take one small step to make re-forecasting easier and more habitual.

Professional Product Discovery and Validation, Jan 24

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